IV

Activity for Advance in House of Councilors Election Is Immediate Central Task

Next is the question of election campaigns.

To achieve a major advance for the JCP in next year's House of Councilors election is the immediate central task. This election policy is set out in detail in the draft Congress Resolution. So I am going to focus on some policies which need to be developed.

To End the Division between "Must-Win Constituencies" and Other Constituencies

The first point we must examine anew is whether it is advisable to establish any "must-win constituencies."

In the draft Resolution, we set out the policy: "To achieve a drastic increase in seats in the proportional representation constituencies and at the same time aim for an advance in the local constituencies" and "based on the great advance we achieved in the 1996 House of Representatives election and the results of the off-year local elections that followed, the party will positively establish must-win constituencies and work hard to win in them."

As the result of a more detailed examination of this policy, the party center has concluded that, in order to meet the demands of the present situation, it is necessary to further develop the policy of the draft Resolution of increasing the number of the must-win constituencies, which was described by the phrase "the party will positively establish must-win constituencies." This means we will drastically develop our former policy of fighting elections based on "must-win constituencies" policy.

To set must-win constituencies naturally could mean that winning seats in the other constituencies was not a central task for the party in the forthcoming elections. Certainly this policy was appropriate and necessary given the political power relations which have so far existed, and this did contribute to our advance in the last House of Councilors election two years ago. But significant changes in the situation have taken place in the past two years concerning our electioneering.

First, in last year's (1996) general election, the party's votes were equivalent to approximately 40%, and about 70% in the 1997 July Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election of the LDP's votes. Moreover, the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections resulted in the JCP in terms of the number of votes and seats being second to the LDP. Furthermore, in a series of national public opinion polls, the JCP has ranked the second or third party. Of course, the party's ranking differs between localities. But the JCP now ranking second at national level means that in terms of the number of seats the JCP is the main challenger to the LDP. This means that the situation has already developed to such an extent that the JCP can no longer be satisfied with the relatively passive position of not making a challenge for the seat in every constituency.

Another point is that resulting from the efforts by the whole party in election campaigns in the last few years, the JCP succeeded in drastically increasing the position of its votes expressed as a percentage of the electorate.

Let me compare the position between prefectures of JCP votes expressed as a percentage of the electorate in the proportional representation election. In the 1992 House of Councilors election, nationally JCP votes were on average 3.79% of the total electorate, and in three prefectures this was in the range of 1% to 2%, in 19 prefectures 2% to 3%, and in 14 prefectures 3% to 4%. Then in the 1995 House of Councilors election, the average rose to 4.00%, with the percentage in two prefectures in the range of 1% to 2%, in 14 prefectures 2% to 3%, and in 19 prefectures 3% to 4%. This means there were 35 prefectures at that time in which the party's votes were less than 4% votes of the electorate.

Remarkable changes took place in last year's general election. Nationally JCP votes were on average 7.44% of the electorate, which means the position almost doubled. Especially remarkable was the advance we made in the prefectures where the party had lagged behind. As a result, there was no longer any prefecture in which our votes were less than 3% of the electorate. In the prefectures which had relatively lagged behind, only one was under 4%, 12 in the range of 4% to 5%, and six in the range of 5% to 6%. Thus on the whole, we achieved a drastic increase in the position of our votes as a percentage of the electorate.

The only prefecture with under 4% was Kagoshima. Even in this case, the party got 3.93%, only slightly under 4%; and although it was the lowest it was higher than the party's national average in the 1992 House of Councilors election.

On the JCP votes as a percentage of the total votes cast, Kagoshima was the lowest with 6.7%. But in the 1992 House of Councilors election, there were 24 prefectures under 6%, and in 1995 there were 12 prefectures with a similar percentage. This therefore is further evidence that the party did actually succeed in drastically increasing its percentage position.

As experienced in the past, it is possible at a time of party advance, for the party to make big electoral advances in different parts of Japan. In the party's major advance in the 1972 general election, we even won seats in constituencies which were not must-win constituencies.

In view of this, we want to establish a policy for ending the division between the must-win constituencies and the other constituencies for the coming House of Councilors election, and to fight the election campaign as a major showdown between the JCP and the LDP, with the determination to win a seat in every possible constituency.

Even in constituencies where it is not yet possible to win seats at present, we must work to sufficiently develop and grow to be able to compete for such seats in the near future. Based on our enthusiasm and determination, we must work hard to achieve a big increase in the votes for the party in every prefecture. This is extremely important.

As election campaigns progress, we will inevitably face the problem of having to give priority to specific constituencies so that we can win the seats in them. On this problem, the Central Committee will accept the responsibility for deciding which constituencies should be given priority, based on a flexible approach and close contact with the local party organizations concerned, and also adopt the appropriate measures for allocating the necessary support in given circumstances. I hope that you will leave the decision on this matter to the Central Committee.

"Based on Proportional Representation Election as the Hub"--Putting Choice of Political Party in the Forefront of Campaigning

Next is the question of the "proportional representation election as the hub."

The policy of presenting the choice of a political party in the forefront of campaigning "based on proportional representation election as the hub" is a well-tried and tested approach which has proved effective in a series of recent election campaigns at both national and local levels. Only by developing a big wave of increased support for the JCP, can we achieve a major advance, not only in national elections in which the people also vote for a political party (proportional representation section of the election), but also in local elections. This has been our consistent experience.

The people's interest in and expectations of the JCP are becoming wider and deeper. It is becoming more and more important for us to systematically work to develop understanding about the JCP among a wider range of people and help to end their misunderstandings and prejudices about the party, by further developing activity of "talking about the party."

We must give importance to activity, with the use of fact and reason, to defeat the deep-rooted anticommunist and anti-progressive attacks including new content and approach.

In so doing, we must continue to ensure that "we talk about the JCP" in response to the voters' interest, instead of just urging them to accept our arguments. This is what we have constantly stressed.

In this situation, we must of course aim to drastically increase the party's votes and seats in the proportional representation section of the House of Councilors election. Also, even for a positive approach to the elections in local constituencies of the same election, the key to achieving a major advance lies in keeping the choice for a political party to the fore and to create a big wave of support for the JCP. Only when party activity is based on this approach, will the unique attraction of individual party candidates be fully apparent.

It must be said that fighting the election based on "JCP-LDP confrontation" does not mean that the party has only got the LDP to fight. What is important is to conduct our election campaigning before the electorate to convince them that what is taking place is in fact "LDP-JCP confrontation."

To this end, it is of decisive importance to severely criticize the Social Democratic Party (Shaminto) and the other party, which constitute a wing of the LDP Hashimoto government as non-cabinet government parties, plus the New Frontier Party (Shinshinto), the Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) and some other parties, which in practice are a wing of the "all-are-ruling-parties" forces but pose as opposition parties. They adopt such a posture in an attempt to divert popular criticism. The point is how to turn the election campaign into a real political showdown between the LDP and the JCP.

Special Significance of Kochi Local Constituency

Third is the question of the local constituency in Kochi Prefecture. There is a detailed report in the draft Congress Resolution on the special significance of Ms. Ruriko Nishioka, a former Socialist House of Councilors member, standing in Kochi local constituency as the joint progressive democratic candidate.

Actually, we got a report from Kochi that this new policy has had great repercussions among non-party people, those who support the former Socialist Party and also LDP supporters. There are also great repercussions and expectations at national level. Victory in this election will be of pioneering significance for developing joint struggle between the JCP and non-party forces at national level. The election will also be significant as a showdown between the progressive and democratic forces and LDP politics in a one-seat constituency. Therefore, we are going to make a special effort and concentrate on this.

Let Us Be on the Alert So as Not to Face Unexpected Defeats in General Election

Next is the general election. The LDP now has more than a majority of House of Representatives seats, and they aim to win more than a majority of seats in the House of Councilors, by taking advantage of the New Frontier Party's decline. The damage done to the LDP's image by the scandal-based resignation of Koko Sato (former director general of the Management and Coordination Agency--ed.) is for them a serious problem. But in such a situation, there is always the possibility of the LDP rushing to dissolve the House of Representatives for a general election if they thought it was in their best interests. We need to be on the alert for such a development.

If the Diet is dissolved for a general election, it is very important for the party to win further major advances following the last general election. The political conditions for us to make such advances are developing far more widely than ever before. In addition to achieving a major advance in the proportional representation section of the election, an important party task is to achieve better results in the single-seat constituencies to add to what we achieved in Kyoto and Kochi last year.

In view of this situation and our tasks, we must take adequate steps in the party, so that no matter what the other side does, we do not have to face any unexpected defeats. To be more specific, we must begin preparations for deciding on our candidates for both the proportional representation blocks and the single-seat constituencies, and to finalize the process in the party by next spring. Please do not make any official announcements yet on possible House of Representatives candidates, because if candidates for both Houses are made public before the House of Councilors election starts, voters could get confused. We must be careful about this. But we need to at least make adequate preparations to meet any surprise attack by the other parties. This is what I want to emphasize.

Off-year Local Elections and Simultaneous Local Elections

Finally, I want to speak about the off-year elections and local elections which take place simultaneously throughout the country. While boldly working for all the off-year local elections, the party must begin to prepare for the simultaneous local elections due in 1999.

Earlier in my report I gave the up-to-date figure of JCP local assembly members as 4,051. This number means that as regards total local assembly members the JCP occupies the outstanding top position. Now let me put this in historical context. On April 27 this year our number of local assembly members became more than 4,000. Resulting from elections on that day, we reached 4,001 assembly members. Now, as the result of elections on September 21, the number has reached 4,051, which represents a record increase of 50 in less than five months. But how long did it take to win an increase of 50 seats before this April? It was in April 1989 when the total of JCP local assembly members first exceeded 3,950. This means that it took as much as a full eight years to reach 4,000. But we achieved the next 50 in five months. We can regard this as reflecting today's turbulent and dramatic situation.

As stated in the draft Resolution, we have certainly made an advance. But, this number represents only 6.24% of all local assembly seats, and the JCP has no seats in 1,046 assemblies which constitute 31.7% of all local assemblies. We would like to work to give further impetus to increasing local assembly members, so that the party members groups in local assemblies can become more powerful in local politics to defend the interests of the residents and local autonomy.

Particularly, we call for special attention to the fact that the party has a small number of seats in prefectural assemblies and in ordinance-designated big city assemblies. In terms of the number of prefectural assembly members, the JCP is the fifth party. It only has the right to initiate bills in Tokyo and Kyoto. As regards ordinance-designated big cities, the party has only got this right in six out of 12 city assemblies. It is necessary for the party to concentrate efforts to win more seats in this sphere. A great difficulty here used to be the small number of seats in the constituencies. But in the wake of the general election, the party has achieved valuable results, with consecutive victories in by-elections in one or two seat-constituencies in Osaka, Chiba and Aichi prefectures, plus victories in about half of the two-seat constituencies in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election. It is important to make use of such valuable results and develop them.